The 2021 Top 100 Prospects list is out and, as usual, there is plenty to discuss. Of course, fans wanted to know why a certain prospect wasn’t ranked higher or why someone missed the list, but questions covered a wide range of topics. To get you answers to these questions,
Where was Noelvi Marte? Was he close to making the top 100?
Mayo: Mariners sure are stacked now with six in the Top 100 Prospects. Getting greedy? Marte is likely the next one up in their Top 30. He had a huge Dominican Summer League, I would like to see him do it here first.
When you make these lists, how do you balance “MLB ETA” vs. upside in determining who is a top 100 player? Is it more focused on guys closer to the majors?
Mayo: It’s way more focused on overall upside and long-term potential. It just so happens that this year’s Top 100 Prospects does have a lot of 2021 ETA guys, but the only reason closeness plays a part for me is because we have more track record on those guys.
Thanks for your time! If you had to predict one year from now who would be the 10 highest rated prospects not on the current top 100? (Excluding 2021 draftees) Did Isaac Paredes or Dillon Dingler get any serious consideration?
Mayo: Paredes did, Dingler didn’t. Top non-Top 100 Prospects I could see a year from now include the aforementioned Noelvi Marte (Mariners), Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics), also Ivan Herrera (Cardinals) and Gunnar Henderson (Orioles).
This isn’t so much about the list as it is scouting in general: when you grade the glove, is that a grade for the position that the prospect is currently listed, or where you think they end up?
Mayo: We typically grade defense based on the position he’s listed at. Example: Spencer Torkelson of the Tigers. He’s No. 3 on the Top 100 Prospects list. His 50 defense grade is for him at 3B. Probably a tick higher at 1B.
Why was Spencer Torkelson ranked above Jarred Kelenic, I really think Kelenic could be the best prospect maybe outside of Wander Franco.
Mayo: I think you could make that argument, though I’m obviously happy with Rutschman at No. 2. I think 3-6 are very, very close. Torkelson’s bat is so ridiculous, he got the edge, but could see Kelenic being the better player eventually.
What is Brandon Marsh’s potential?
Rosenbaum: Not going to make any bold predictions about Marsh, though I will say that he received the most positive feedback of any player we asked execs about during the creation of our Top 100 Prospects list. Folks are very high on him.
What is Francisco Alvarez’s ceiling and how fast might he move up this list?
Rosenbaum: Very high, very quickly. Just needs reps like every young player does these days.
Thoughts on Ivan Herrera? How close is the young catcher to the Top 100 Prospects list?
Rosenbaum: We’re all Ivan Herrera fans. He’s just a solid ballplayer and always improving. He made the final spot on our Top 10 catchers list over some other big names, so it’s safe to infer he’s not too far off our Top 100 Prospects list. Really good kid, too.
If Quinn Priester comes out this season and confirms what all the scouts are saying, how high could you see him move up this list at mid season?
Callis: No player has received more love based on his instructs performance this fall than Priester. I’ve had some scouts tell me they think he could emerge as the best pitching prospect in baseball in 2021.
Which Dodgers did you have just missing the Top 100 Prospects?
Callis: I bet Michael Busch makes the Top 100 Prospects this year. Kody Hoese, Bobby Miller & Diego Cartaya have a shot to make it this year too. And given the way the Dodgers develop, they’ll probably have some guys emerge too.
Among the players not in the top 25, outside of Jasson Dominguez who can you see rising into the top 5 next year?
Callis: I’ll pick one from each 25-player block:
26-50: Triston Casas, Red Sox
51-75: Quinn Priester, Pirates
76-100: Tougher … Geraldo Perdomo, D-backs
Do you see Adley Rutschman’s future as a franchise catcher? Any comps for him?
Callis: Yes, easily. My favorite pre-Draft comp on Adley Rutschman was that he’s Mark Teixeira’s bat combined with a Gold Glove catcher.
What about Deivi García?
Callis: Another guy who just missed. Lots to like with García, but he’s also smallish, his velocity was so-so in 2020 and he doesn’t have a long track record of strikes, so more reliever risk than most guys who made the Top 100 Prospects. Also can make an easy case for him on there, too.